Research Papers

The paper draws on the findings of a major research project to theorise the role of intelligence in EU foreign policy-making. While intelligence studies is a well-established field in the US, the role of intelligence in European foreign policy is mainly left to historians of national foreign policy. Even fewer studies can be found who conceptualise the role of intelligence in multi-national organisations in general and the EU in particular. This paper conceptualises intelligence as an in-house process of knowledge-production and communication designed to enhance policy-planning and decision-making on issues mainly relating to foreign affairs. The paper makes the case for recapturing the notion of „good learning“ in foreign-policy making, rather than just focusing on cognitive change and argues that classical theories in intelligence studies neglect the overlaps and interlinkages between intelligence production and decision-making. The paper then proceed to investigate empirically whether and to what extent, the EU is able to gather, analyse, communicate, and process intelligence effectively. Looking at estimative intelligence and warning in recent cases such as Georgia and Libya, the paper shows that the EU is in some respects better equipped than member states to produce more relevant, timely and accurate judgements as compared to its larger members. At the same time, it suffers from idiosyncratic problems relating to confidentiality, restrictions on professional autonomy, suspicions of national biases, and finally, the inability to adequately prioritise what knowledge is relevant and urgent. The paper concludes by discussing steps to improve the EU’s intelligence capacities, but cautions that significant improvements will only occur if there is a clearer articulation of EU interests by the HR, a less hierarchical organisational culture for the EEAS, and more support from member states for effective EU action.