Research Papers

This paper studies attitudes towards the EU in seven Western Balkan countries, with a particular focus on ethnicity and migration. The data come from the unique Gallup Balkan Monitor survey, containing a number of questions on EU integration and migration, as well as a rich set of socio-demographic characteristics. The survey was conducted in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia in 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The total sample consists of more than 28,000 face-to-face interviews (nationally representative samples of approximately 1,000 respondents for each country-year). The data are analysed econometrically, using the multivariate ordered probit approach. Two questions are used to capture attitudes towards the EU: 1) Do you think membership in the EU would be a good thing? and 2) If there was a referendum on Sunday on joining the EU, what would you vote? We are particularly interested in how the attitudes towards joining the EU are affected by the respondents’ 1) willingness to emigrate to an EU country; 2) receiving remittances from an EU country; 3) previous work or study experience in the EU; and 4) ethnic background. The results show that, other things equal, respondents willing to move to the EU and respondents receiving remittances from the EU express particularly strong support for EU membership, suggesting instrumental motives. Experience of living in the EU is positively and significantly correlated with voting favourably in a EU referendum, but not with considering EU membership a good thing. Ethnicity plays a major role both within and across countries: ethnic Serbs (including those living in Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro) are less pro-European, while ethnic Albanians (including those in Kosovo, Macedonia and Montenegro) are more pro-European. Interestingly, people in Croatia - the country first in line to join the EU - report particularly low EU support.