At the Table or on the Menu? Impact of Eurozone Membership on Negotiation Outcomes in the EU Council

Jan Jakub Chromiec

Does Eurozone membership have an impact on negotiation outcomes in the Council of the European Union? Anecdotal evidence and conceptual literature suggest that non-members could lose out in negotiations, particularly because they are denied access to member-only decision-making fora such as the Eurogroup. However, so far we have lacked systematic empirical analyses of this relationship. This paper studies the linkage between Eurozone membership and negotiation outcomes on 43 legislative proposals from the 'Decision-Making in the EU' dataset which were negotiated in the Council between 2004 and 2009. A fuzzy-set QCA analysis shows that poor bargaining success of non-members of the Eurozone can be in most cases explained not by Eurozone membership-related factors, but by a relatively low salience non-members attached to proposals. However, Eurozone membership helps explain non-members' lower negotiation outcomes in the ECOFIN Council. It also affects negotiation outcomes of small and medium-sized countries more strongly than large ones. The results confirm previous findings about the crucial importance of salience in Council negotiations. Nevertheless, they also suggest that 'differentiated integration' arrangements such as the Economic and Monetary Union can have a limited, but noticeable impact on decision-making outcomes in the Council.

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