A Qualitative Comparative Analysis Model for Comparing the Influence of the Hungarian, Polish and Lithuanian Council Presidencies on Eastern Partnership Policy

Bruno Vandecasteele, Ghent University

The influence of the rotating Council Presidency on EU decision-making has been the subject of much academic debate in the past decades. While some authors have claimed that holding the Presidency is of limited relevance for the influence of a Member State in the EU, others have convincingly shown that the chair does exert additional influence on decision-making. Although the Lisbon Treaty dramatically changed the institutional setting for external EU policies, recent research shows that the Presidency continues to play a role in external EU policies. However, a systematic analysis of (combinations of) conditions that increase Presidency influence is still lacking in the literature. The proposed paper outlines the analytical framework for a comparison of three Council Presidencies - the Hungarian, Polish (both 2011) and Lithuanian (2013) - using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA). Based on a growing body of literature, a number of country-, issue- and context-specific conditions for influence are identified and operationalized to integrate in a QCA scheme. The paper focuses on how these conditions apply to the different Presidencies, and discusses the advantages and possible disadvantages of the method for understanding Presidency influence.



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